TFThe Market Shack

The Market Shack

A research log on the Indian markets.

Scroll
Macro

Today in context

RBI repo rate
5.25%
+0.00%
Today
Breadth
36 / 96
37.5% above 200-DMA

The Nifty 100 closed risk-off: 36 of 96 stocks are above their 200-day moving average.

EOD · 25 Sept 2026
See all indicators
India Story

What’s owned, and why

Every position here started as a macro thesis and had to survive the whole funnel — policy, then the economic print, then sector rotation, then the company itself. What sits around this block is what came through, and the reasoning that got it there.

Full portfolio

At the market shack, we don’t just present ideas — we test them too.

Research archive

Latest work

All projects →
backtest16 May 2026

We Ran 400 Momentum Tests on Nifty 500 Stocks Across 20 Years. One Parameter Matters More Than Everything Else.

Raw price momentum was tested on the full Nifty 500 universe from 2006 to 2026. Four hundred combinations across portfolio size, lookback window, rebalancing frequency, and trailing stop-loss. The single variable that dominated every other was rebalancing frequency. Weekly rebalancing produced an average CAGR of -1.87% across 80 combinations. 12M rebalancing produced 12.44%. The signal is the same in both cases. The only thing that changes is how often you trade it.

backtest13 May 2026

Buying Nifty After It Falls: 152 Tests Across 30 Years Show the Same Thing

Over 30 years of Nifty data, 152 backtests examined whether buying intraday dips or overnight gap-downs could outperform a simple SIP. Different thresholds, execution rules, and fallback mechanisms were tested and every variation underperformed the SIP benchmark.

backtest10 May 2026

Buying Nifty Strength: Intraday Breakouts and Overnight Gap-Ups vs the SIP

Four of 38 thresholds produce positive returns over the SIP across intraday breakout and overnight gap-up strategies. The best result adds ₹1.97 lakh over 30 years which is pretty much insignificant. The worst destroys ₹1.05 crore against SIP.

backtest10 May 2026

Buying Nifty Weakness: Intraday Dips and Overnight Gap-Downs vs the SIP

Both strategies lose. Across 30+ years of daily Nifty data and 19 thresholds each, buying intraday dips or overnight gap-downs never outperforms a monthly SIP. The worst interday gap-down variant, a 4% filter, trails the SIP by ₹1.47 crore on ₹36.7 lakh of contributions.

backtest11 May 2026

Buy the Breakout on Nifty: Why Monthly Momentum Works and Weekly Momentum Doesn't

Four momentum and draw-up strategies tested across 87 variants. Strategy 14's single 12-1 momentum rule outperforms by ₹4.34 lakh. Monthly draw-up produces 14 outperforming thresholds. Weekly draw-up and ATH breakout go a combined 0 for 50. Momentum timing on Nifty works monthly, not weekly or intraday.